The 1 Seed Money Line Myth

The 1 Seed Money Line Myth

Somewhere along the path to March, someone will come up with the same brilliant idea that has never been thought up before, "what if I just played a Money Line Bet with all of the 1 seeds, that would guarantee a win". 

"I mean a 1 seed has never lost in the first round bro!"

1.  Vegas would never allow anything close to a guarantee stay on the board.  They are smarter than you, have hired the best and brightest and they may have some clear fixed guarantees they are in on but they'd never let you bet on something if they knew they could not win.   So alas, they don't have Money Lines on 1 v 16 match-ups. 
Some offshore books do but why are you in Vegas if you are using your offshore book, stay home in Sandusky, Ohio and bet from the local Buffalo Wild Wings.  

2.  If they did, bro probably shouldn't do it as it locks up too much cashflow that could be better used.   Lets use simple math. 

Using the modern shot clock era, the average spread of the 1 v 16 match up is -24.125 with a low of 23 (5x) and a high of 27 in the legendary Texas Southern v North Carolina match-up last year in which NC covered winning 103 to 64.   In reality compared to other seeds; Vegas doesn't really stretch too far in setting the line, they generally set in in this 4 point range and 5 of 8 covers have come in so a slight advantage there (the real answer is 6 of 8 games go over by an average of 12 points -- throw out the Gonzaga/SDSU game last year on the basis of a 157 total, 2.5 points higher than next closest in the modern era (2 years) and then a game that missed by 45 points ending 66-46; and the numbers are super compelling).

So lets use that -24 as the mark.  Using a dataset of a few thousand games in NCAA history; any spread over 15 points has a win % of 94% and at 24 the number is pretty much 99%.   A fair money line on a 99% winner is -9900 and lets make this easy to do and call it -10000.   They won't give you a fair Money Line, they never do... but lets say they do in this case. 

So what does it take to do a ML parlay with all four 1 seeds with another assumption that Vegas wouldn't jack up their take which they would; I'll keep it at -110 on cost.   

Play $10K and you have upside to win ~$10,406.04.   You are taking $10K out of circulation for betting for most of Thursday and Friday, still have a small risk of losing it and in the end you'll make $406.04 but of course you'll tip someone the $6 so you can get your drink tickets.   Wait, why the $6; that was the added winnings for taking the 4 games or none risk that is a parlay.... yep, $6!  

So EVEN if you had the money, were OK with $400 winning on $10K risk; you STILL wouldn't do a 4 team Money Line Parlay.... and to be real honest, I'm guessing if you can afford the $10K bankroll gap; winning $400 won't get you excited and the risk is not worth the reward.

3.   Opportunity cost for those whom have the money.  Lets just play the $10K broadly against the Over trend talked about above on 1 seeds instead only lets add in the 2 seeds as well;  In the past 2 years, 1 and 2 seeds in Round 1 have gone over 11 of 16 times by and average over margin of 14 points.    68.75% Win Rate is huge.   2016 was 6 of 8, 2017 was 5 of 8.   

So to spend $9,800 in a 8 Game 3 team Parlay Round Robin at $1,750/bet.   

8 of 8 = $58K

7 of 8 = $32K

6 of 8 = $14K (2016 Would have Paid This)

5 of 8 = $2K (2017 would have paid this)

4 of 8 = -$4K

3 of 8 = -$8K

2 of 8 = -$9,800

So the next time someone asks about their brilliant 1 v 16 seed Money Line strategy you know they fall into a few categories: 

1.  Total Bullshiter, Can't afford the bet; clueless on betting

2.  High Roller without a Plan to Roll

Based on the odds I was betting in on which can vary to the odds you were betting in on since these things change from book to book and min to min but.... Some side things I learned while writing this article: 

In the 2 years, the 16 team play in winner when they face the top 1 seeds always go over in the next round Round (4 for 4). 

Tony Bennett can go under any number just like his Daddy!

In 2 of the 6 totals for 1 and 2 seeds in Round 1 in which the total had a hook it was what paid the over.  One other game went over by 1 point but had no hook.  

In 2 of the 5 spreads for 1 and 2 seeds in Round in which the spread had a hook it was what paid the cover.  On other game failed to push a cover by 1 point (BAKERSFIELD!!!!!!!).  

In both 2016 and 2017, the first and last 1 or 2 seed to play; the game went under which is crazy considering how heavy the over bias is BUT be careful as that includes the aforementioned Gonzaga game and a 2016 Virginia team that established the lowest total in the data set and then missed it at 130.