The Slow Teams Go Under

The Slow Teams Go Under

Many a novice will believe the above statement and assume it is too logical, ie "super simple".  But clearly Vegas knows slow teams go slow and sets lower totals.  So it can't be that simple.   

I often see posts in the MMILV group that I am part of on Facebook that also seem to lack understanding of Totals and results compared to trends.  This should provide some real data to drive a real conversation.  

Again 2 years since this is all data that is SUPER impacted by possessions and we know since "The Change" the models would reset.   

Lets start with the basic, Do slow teams go under?   

We have to review off a par, since the past 2 years have not been a 50/50 result in my dataset (which could be a point or hook off to yours since we all bet at different books and at different times into slightly different lines).  My over par will be 59.22% which is the 61-42-1 record for Round 0, Round 1, Round 2 games in 2016 & 2017.     

So defining slow (or fast) is key also.  We just can't look at one team, it will be useless; there are two teams in each game, we must look at both teams BUT for now I'll do what you ask all the time and we'll look at one team.  

Ken Pomeroy

The basis of how we will define fast and slow will be based on their oAPL -- Average Possession Length (Stats Inc/Ken Pom Metric) when they play offense.   If a team's oAPL is 1 full second shorter than their opponents (their dAPL) over the course of the season, they played with a bias of "faster than their opponents".  If a team's oAPL is 1 full second slower than their opponents, they played with a bias of "slower than their opponents"

So what do we find out.... Round 0/Round1/Round 2 2016 & 2017... 

If the favorite played "faster than ops" --  68.18% of the time their game goes over, which is a solid 8.96 pp better than par or 15.13% advantage.  

SO YES WE PROVED IT, FAST TEAMS GO OVER!

Not so fast my friend, If the favorite played most of the year "Slower than Ops" -- 65.85% of the time their game goes over, which is a solid 6.63 pp better than bar or 11.2% advantage. 

HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE????

Well there is a third group of games, games where the favorite generally played games at the same pace as their opponents "PUSH"; these games only go over 47.50% of the time which is 11.72 pp worse than par or a 19.79% disadvantage.  

BUT WHY DO YOU USE THE FAVORITE????

Well I use the fav as I believe the better team (often the team Vegas thinks will win the game) has better players & coaches and can better dictate pace.  But the data says, this doesn't' matter.  Even if you want to say the Dog drives the pace... 

66.67% "Faster than Ops" Over Rate
66.67% "Slower than Ops Over Rate
52.73% "Push" Over Rate"


Lets keep talking, I hear other things that make me want to find numbers....

IF THE FAV IS FASTER THAN THE DOG; the GAME GOES OVER!!!!!

So this is logical to me in many ways, Favs that are faster force Dogs to play faster which creates turnovers, easy baskets for both teams but for sure the better team, more fouls and that all drives scoring. 
So lets see if it is true.... 

If the Fav is greater than 1.9 possessions more than the dog in a 40 min game (A-Tempo); we will define that the Faster team is the Fav.  If the dog is great than 1.9 possession less than the fav in a 40 min game; we will define the faster team is the Dog.  Anything in the middle is a PUSH.   

In games where the Fav is the Faster Team; the over ratio is 52.38% (22-20) or 6.84 pp below par and an 11.55% disadvantage.  Compared to normal, games in which the fav is the faster team tend to go under.    So my assumption (and yours) proves not accurate.  

IF THE DOG IS FASTER THAN THE FAV; the GAME GOES UNDER!!!!

So this is logical, the lessor talented team gets slowed down and scores less than normal.   So lets see if it is true.... Darn it all, In games where the Dog is the Faster Team; the over ratio is still great 65.12% or 5.9pp better than par and 9.96% advantage.  

PUSH games where the Dog and Fav play a reasonably same number of possessions a game in the regular season go over as well but not much, 61.11% (11-7), only 1.89 pp better than par or 3.19% advantage -- can't bet that.  

Total Side Note:  Interesting is that Dogs are faster than Favs 43-42-18 in the past 2 years.  Meaning the NCAA Committee seems to set equal types of match ups of pace between better and worse teams and often doesn't match like teams. 

WHAT IS THE RIGHT ANSWER THAN? 

So above models are all looking at each game in 0 or 1 dimensions, lets try a 2 dimension analysis and see what we learn.   Every game has a bias, there are 9 options:

• Faster than Ops Fav v Faster than Ops Dog
• Faster than Ops Fav v PUSH Dog
• Faster than Ops Fav v. Slower than Ops Dog
• PUSH Fav v. Faster than Ops Dog
• PUSH Fav v PUSH Dog
• PUSH Fav v Slower than Ops Dog
• Slower than Ops Fav v. Faster than Ops Dog
• Slower than Ops Fav v PUSH Dog
• Slower than Ops Fav v. Slower than Ops Dog

Game Type is "Fav Bias-Dog Bias"

So what did we learn for March Weekend 1?

• Don't bet games where both teams are Fast, Slow or Neutral.
• The most common game in March is a slow fav against a neutral dog -- don't play these games.
• Bet the Under when both teams have no unique style/tempo
• DOUBLE your bet if the game features 2 teams of opposite dominate styles; and always bet the OVER in those games you'd have a record of 14-3 (82%)

 Bonus Stuff for you:

• Slowest Team in America, Virginia is 2 of 4 on overs the past 2 years.  
• UCLA was fastest team in 2017 tournament, were 1 of 2 on overs
• Past 2 years the fastest 3 teams were 2016 Xavier, 2017 Kentucky, 2017 UCLA; when favs the Over went 1-5.  

TJH