The Spread

The Spread

Smart dudes spend a lot of time trying to determine what the Spread will be for each game.  Now most people will get this wrong and assume it is still 2007 Vegas where books really wanted to be books and were trying to drive 50/50 splits of bets and just profit off the vig but in 2018 we know that books will take a position when that position aligns to where they see a sellable line that will drive bets yet still be less than logical meaning they will win more than than lose and profit from the line.   

We see this when we look at the public information given out about % of bets and % of money on each total, spread and half on sites like www.sportsinsights.com etc.   

What Vegas sportsbooks do tend to do is make sure their sharp money is as 50/50 as possible and/or they have enough squares offsetting sharp money; they generally don't want to be against sharps BUT squares like March Madness are small fish to these sharks.  March Madness Weekend One is one of the most square weekends in a Sportsbook - not that the sharps don't play but so many squares are showing up that generally don't show up it dilutes the sharps.  

Look for a future post about why line moves in March are false flags. 

So tonight I'll look at the past 2 years and see if we can determine if the spread gives us any ideas of what will happen.  

Well lets break it up into a few groups: 

The One Basket Spreads (.5 to 3)

Covers are 12-11-1.   And what is most interesting, only 3 times did the No Cover result due to the spread itself.  Favs SU are 15-9.  

ATS Margin within a basket has happened only 4 (17%) times as well, 

• Round 0 game in 2017 between 16 New Orleans & 16 Mount St. Mary's where New Orleans failed to cover and the ATS Margin after the 1.5 spread was 2.5 points (Game also only went over by 1.5 so what an ending! for those who were there early).   
• Round 0 game in 2017 USC laying 2 v Providence in the 11 seed play in game where USC covered the 2 by 2 additional.  
• Round 1 game in 2016 where 9 Seed Providence (back again) was a 2 point fav over USC (back again) and lost by a basket 70-69 to fail to cover.    
• Round 1 game 7 Michigan v 10 Oklahoma State laying 2.5 and only winning by a basket in a game that ended 92 to 91. 

So what does this tell us, unless you are betting Providence/USC; don't expect the spread to mean much in this range.  Pick Winners. Bet on Winners.  

The Catch Up Free Throw Spreads (3.5 to 7)

These are the spreads where I always worry if I'm taking points that the bet will flip as coaches generally foul up to about an 7 point margin then give up when it takes 3 possessions. 

But my fear is not real, No Covers have the advantage here at 18-15 and Favs only win 23-10.   ATS Margin within a basket has happened 6 times (18%) but only 1x did it result in the cover (Duke/Yale 2016 R1 - 6.5 ended 71 to 64). 

In this range, take those points and hope they foul the right guys in the last 90 seconds. 

The Low ATS-Only Spreads  (7.5 to 14)

At this point, Favs have won 24 of 26 games, the only 2 upsets were: 

• Xavier Killing FSU in R2 of 2017 91-66 on a +7.5 bet
• UA-LR upset of Purdue in 2016 85 to 83 while getting 8

So lets remove those 2 games from the dataset and look at the remaining 24.  Covers 14-10.  But ATS Margin within a basket has happened 6 times (25%).   So exciting games here and really need to think about pace and matchups without a general rule.   

Side note, these 24 games went over 16 times (66.6% on a 59.22% par) and only 2 of those overs were within a basket -- interesting data point to consider.  

The High ATS Only Spreads (14+)

When looking at games with 2 touchdown spreads in hoops, you have to instinctly think that it is hard to blow out a team and it comes down often to determining if the coach has a reason to run the score up and/or rest their starters for the 2nd game of the weekend.    

Well, the past 2 years we have only seen spreads this high in Round 1 and Favs are 16-1 SU (Say it with me, "Every dude in Vegas claims to have totally had MTSU on the Money Line -- but no one did").   

Take out that game, Covers have a 9-7 advantage and ATS Margin within a basket has happened 8 times (50%).    

Bet these spreads with extreme caution; the lines are set for great teams but there are tons of unpredictable variations that impact the result of the bet often coming down to if 2nd string guys put up a few points in garbage time and/or a coach is crooked and playing to the spread (it happens more than we know).  

So who are those coaches?  Last 2 years with the shortened shot clock... 

• Dana Altman @ Oregon  (Layed 23 and won by 39 in 2016; Layed 15.5 and won by 16 in 2017) -- Seems he just runs up scores
• Not shocking to me, Big Game Billy Self (Layed 25.5 and won by 26 in 2016; Layed 23 and won by 38 in 2017) -- 2016 win was fishy.  

Side Note:  Really love the Over in this big spread games, Over is 13-4 (76% on a 59.22% par) and only 3 of those overs were within a basket.