The Picks
So the spreadsheet has been updated, the numbers crunched and I have flown to Vegas; I am ready to post the Bracket selections for the 2018 March Madness. If you are in a work pool and/or are not sure what you are doing, start here... Here is my methodology: For 1st Round, Determine % of chance for each team to win that round based on a poll of polls for many trusted models and gut insight from 3 top handicappers (Rick Donegan, Robb Silverstein and myself). From there I have to decide how many upsets I want to play; the matrix has an 8.3% upset rate in round 1 which means rounded up you have 3 upsets + 2 flipped games (FSU is Fav as a 9 seed, Butler is fav as 10 seed). So most common upsets in the model are Arkansas (10), Texas (10), Loyola-Chicago (11) and then I"m adding in a gut pick of New Mexico St (12) as I only cost myself 1 round as I have Auburn winning the Round 2 game and the mo play for the 11 seed that faces Florida as I have them as a week 6