The Picks

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So the spreadsheet has been updated, the numbers crunched and I have flown to Vegas; I am ready to post the Bracket selections for the 2018 March Madness.  If you are in a work pool and/or are not sure what you are doing, start here... 

 Here is my methodology:  

 For 1st Round, 


 Determine % of chance for each team to win that round based on a poll of polls for many trusted models and gut insight from 3 top handicappers (Rick Donegan, Robb Silverstein and myself).   

 From there I have to decide how many upsets I want to play; the matrix has an 8.3% upset rate in round 1 which means rounded up you have 3 upsets + 2 flipped games (FSU is Fav as a 9 seed, Butler is fav as 10 seed).   

 So most common upsets in the model are Arkansas (10), Texas (10), Loyola-Chicago (11) and then I"m adding in a gut pick of New Mexico St (12) as I only cost myself 1 round as I have Auburn winning the Round 2 game and the mo play for the 11 seed that faces Florida as I have them as a week 6, in this case UCLA. 

 Note -- Missouri has a new suspension so I'm staying on FSU as model doesn't know that yet.

 For Round 2

 Move the 1 and 2 seeds.   Too much risk if you don't. 

 Move one Cinderella, this year it is Loyola-Chicago
Move one good 5 seed, this year it is West Virginia (really anti-Wichita)

Stay Chalky here, stay in the pool as long as possible. 

 For Sweet 16 & Elite 8

 Work backward, who are you Final 4 Teams.  

 Focus on two 1 seeds, one 2 seed and a 3-5 seed.   

 For me, North Carolina, Villanova, Virginia are clear so in the last bracket I have to think about Duke, Michigan St. or Auburn.  All are flawed but MSU is the easiest option that will create value as more Duke fans out there. 

 Now throw in an upset, in my case I'm going to move Loyola again as I'm not convinced Cincy is legit.  Texas Tech over Purdue as I think Purdue is flawed as well. Gonzaga over Xavier is a wash for me but take the lower seed to move ahead of the pack as a contrarian.  Kansas moves forward for me on the other side.

Final 4

 I think Nova wins this, NC faces them in the final.   

 Here is my brackets as submitted in the league that matters the most for me, assuming trying to beat up to 20 with this.  Larger leagues, need more upsets. 


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