Marching Toward Madness

The Best Favs in March Madness So when it comes to March Madness, many square bettors will talk about teams from year to year and/or historical performance and assume there is some correlation to performance.  This is a logical fallacy however there are some concepts which I guess you could feel were material and valid in your handicapping. I assume (and there is data coming) that some coaches are better at preparing their team, scouting opponents etc; no matter their players and opponents they would be more likely to win and cover games in the tournament.   This is a legit factor maybe. I assume that some programs are so "prestigious" that opposing players are materially and unique impacted by the opportunity to play that team that they grew up "dreaming about" and didn't get to play for;  but I'm not sure if that would make you be intimidated and play poorly or make you raise your game, for each kid it would be different. That said, I'm here t

  Seeds in 2020 One of the most common discussions I see online is discussions around the "seeds" in various games.  As a Data Driven Punter ("DDP"), we know how the NCAA tournament uses the "seeds" and it is NOT the absolute science that everyone assumes it is.  In 2020, we could very well see significant adjustments to the S Curve based on the NCAA Seeding Guidelines.... Here is a reminder of how it works:  Use this reference:    Long Form -- NCAA  There are 3 steps, they are unique and although at times overlapping done mutually exclusive to each other.    The hardest part is Step 3, which is why we learn the most important thing we need to understand about how to assess "seeds" when we are punting;  "A team may be moved up or down one (or in extraordinary circumstances) two lines from its true seed line (e.g., from the 13 seed line to the 12 seed line; or from a 12 seed line to a 13 seed line) when it is placed in th