The Best Favs in March Madness

The Best Favs in March Madness

So when it comes to March Madness, many square bettors will talk about teams from year to year and/or historical performance and assume there is some correlation to performance.  This is a logical fallacy however there are some concepts which I guess you could feel were material and valid in your handicapping.

I assume (and there is data coming) that some coaches are better at preparing their team, scouting opponents etc; no matter their players and opponents they would be more likely to win and cover games in the tournament.   This is a legit factor maybe.

I assume that some programs are so "prestigious" that opposing players are materially and unique impacted by the opportunity to play that team that they grew up "dreaming about" and didn't get to play for;  but I'm not sure if that would make you be intimidated and play poorly or make you raise your game, for each kid it would be different.

That said, I'm here to give you Data.... i would NEVER use this data to make a single gambling decision, but maybe you would.

So here is data about how programs perform in March Madness when they are a favorite and I will provide analysis on a few levels.... SU and ATS for Round 1 and Entire Event... All data is based on results from 1985-2019 and only showing schools with > 10 games as the fav in the cohorts selected. 


School as Fav Straight Up in the First Round

• Kentucky and Utah have NEVER lost a Round 1 gave they were favored to win.  That is crazy considering for Kentucky that is over 27 games
• Kentucky's 27 wins as fav come as 1,2,3,4,5,9 and 12 seed.  
• The closest Kentucky has come to losing as a fav in Round 1 is 2 points v Princeton in 2011 as a 4 seed. 
• Kentucky's Average Margin of Win SU as fav in Round 1 is 19 points, only 9 of the 27 times was the game within 10 points (33%)
• In Summary:  No better team in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament than Kentucky.
• Utah's 11 wins are impressive as they have come as the 2,3,4,5,6,9 seeds with average Margin of 14 points and the closest being 3 points in 2000 v a SLU team from Conference USA.   
• What you will learn later, Utah covered 10 of those 11 games.  
• In Summary:  No better team to bet on in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament than Utah when they are the fav
• If you are one of those hacky Money Line Dog Chasers,  really consider playing against Missou, Iowa St, Notre Dame, Indiana and Marquette.   
• Do you Remember?  The 1 time North Carolina did not win in Round 1?   Weber St in 1999 behind Harold Arceneaux's 36.
• Do you Remember?  The 1 time Gonzaga did not win in Round 1?  No chance... Wyoming beat them as an 11 seed back in 2002.  
• How many of the 9 teams who beat Missou do you remember?  I bet you remember Norfolk State.  I know I do.   Other teams include Xavier, Rhode Island, UNI, Temple, New Mexico, Cincy, Colorado St. Florida St.  
• The last time Missou won a game as a fav in the 1st Round of March Madness was 2009.

School as Fav Straight Up in the Entire Tournament

• Utah's dominance continues even as we expand the cohort to the entire March Madness Tournament
• Do you Remember?  The 1 time Utah lost when they were the fav... Miami of Ohio beat them in the 2nd round as a 10 seed.  This game is known as the Wally Szerbiack game.  
• This list reads like a strong list of historically strong programs with a few surprises like Iowa and  Stanford.  
• We knew Missou would have issues, since the Round 1 is the largest number of games a team will play but Florida St. is interesting to see near the bottom of the list. 
• Florida State has lost as a fav in Round 1 as a 4 seed to MTSU in 1989k, Bucky as a 5 seed in 2009; has lost in Round 2 in 2012 to Cincy as a 6 seed and to Xavier in 2017 who was a plucky 11 seed.  More... 
• FSU lost as a fav in a highly unique 10 v 11 Round 3 match up to VCU during VCU's 2011 Cinderella run
• And FSU also lost in the extremely rare 12 v 13 Round 2 game to a Valpo team coming in off of one of the most amazing shots in NCAA tournament history in Round 1

School as Fav ATS in Round 1

• We told you this was coming, Utah is the OMG by far best team you can bet on in Round of the tournament ATS.  
• The only time Utah did not cover their Round 1 game in which they were the fav was in 1997 when they were a strong 2 seed behind Keith Van Horne, Michael Doleac and a young Andre Miller and only won by 14 while trying to cover 19 to a Patriot league Navy squad. 
• You have to really think about the fact that North Carolina really doesn't seem to care about covering games... they win but don't seem to care about a cover. 
• So Tenn as the worst Round 1 bet ATS was a little surprising,  last year in Round 1 they did not cover an 18 pt spread as a 2 seed against Colgate.
• Odd Stat:  Of the  18 games in which the Fav won but failed to cover by a margin of > 16 points, Duke makes up 4 of the 18 games;  Kansas and Oklahoma have 2 each -- rest with 1 bad did not cover but won is Mich, Cuse, GTown, Illinois, Ark-Kansas, UConn, Purdue, NC, Nova and Zaga

School as Fav ATS in Tournament

It is interesting to me that Duke has had so much success in the NCAA tournament, but they are VERY below average as a betting option at any point in the tournament.   

Clearly Coach K isn't interested in making the Duke bettors happy; he just wants to win Championships

Utah continues to show their dominance;  which isn't lost on me that there is almost no chance they are going to play in the 2020 tournament.  

WVU has only failed to pay their bets in 5 games in the NCAA tournament which is impressive; those 5 times are...

In 2005 WVU fail to cover v Creighton in a R1 7 v 10 game; 

In 2008, a Round 3 loss to a 3 seed Xavier who was a 1 pt dog, 

In 2009, a Round 1 loss to Dayton as a 6 seed

In 2016, a Round 1 loss to SFA in 2016; Thomas Walkup anyone? 

In 2017 They failed to covered as a 4 seed laying 14 to Patiort league Bucknell

Come back soon, I'll be doing the same assessment of teams as dogs!

Enjoy and as always, comment here or follow me on Twitter at @BetswithNumbers